Indo: Double or Nothing?

Indo copped a blast at the start of June and almost as soon as the videos and photos started dropping, our long range forecast was calling for another. At 16 days range you've got a right not to be booking flights, but as this thing gets closer, it has not only stayed put but it's growing on the charts.

Forecast for Padang Padang (Bali)
© 2015 - MSW

The 6th of June saw 8ft @ 17 seconds pile into Bali and beyond and the outlook now is for a, potentially bigger, swell to hit for next weekend (27th - 28th June). The numbers right now are pretty bonkers and they don't even tell the whole story.

The key points are the size of the storm as well as the power. If it comes in as called, it's well over 1000 miles across. This'll create a directional spread that will defy conventional swell direction wisdom – there could be as much as 30 degrees spread over distance which is unusual at this range and will open up pretty much every spot in the Archipelago.

Perfection last week at Lance's Right on 5ft @ 14 seconds. The swell in question is currently predicted to peak at 11ft @ 18seconds.

Currently, the headline numbers for period top the September 2013 blast but at a similar size which would still put it as the largest swell of the last few years. More realistically you have to assume the numbers will cool. We're several days from the storm blowing through – however not only has our main model held consistently from update to update, but other agency models are similarly confident. In fact the spread of size in our Multi-Model product is as low as you're likely to see at this range at this size.

Things can and no doubt will change, but if you're thinking of a last minute trip to Indo you'll want to be watching the charts this weekend. By Monday this one should be all but locked in and we'll update with satellite confirmation and the latest call.

Swell chart for Mon 22nd June
© 2015 - MSW

You have to know where you've been to get an idea of where you're going, so while we ponder what this swell will or won't, we cast our eyes back over our shoulders to that swell in 2013.

A look up Padang's dream setup will often look deceptively inviting, but at this size, look a little closer and you'll soon realise the reason for an empty lineup.
© 2015 - Liquid Barrel

Impossibles bearing some serious girth during that swell back in 2013, if this swell shows its face in the manner in which we hope, we can't wait to see how she'll look.
© 2015 - Liquid Barrel

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